LGR Data Scraps: Frequency statistics

Posted: October 21, 2015 in Firearms News

Another notes style post on the remains of the LGR data.

How fresh is the data?

The last month in which data is found in the LGR dump is April 2012, which led me to question the frequency of entry;  how many registrations share a common “Registration Date” column, to give an indication of how busy the RCMP was at certain points in time

The earliest record is Thu, 26 Nov 1998 and the last record is Sat, 21 Apr 2012.

lgr-per-month

The spikes correspond to activities coming into force as a result of Bill C-68, where the regulations were passed in March of 1998, being phased in starting December 1, 1998.  At it’s peak, the Firearms Program processed 67519 registrations in a single day on January 18th 2002, marked with other points such as 53214 registrations on November 13th 2002 and 47857 on January 10th of 2002.  Of the 4863 days of registry data, there are 142 days in which the Firearms Program processed 10,000 or more registrations.  The LGR processed, on average 1648 registrations per day, or 2.44% of it’s peak processing capacity.  If we exclude those 142 busy days (days with more than 10000 registrations processed), the daily average falls to 1176 registrations.

lgr-by-year
On average throughout the life of the LGR program, 534,000 firearms were registered annually in Canada.  The tailing years of the program tell a story of a more routine, but slightly growing system.  From 2004 to the end of program, annually, about 370,000 firearms were registered, trending for year-over-year growth of about 65,000 registrations per year.

Unknown is what the protocol ever was for removing a firearm from the LGR;  while the certificate is not in the data, any statistic on the rate of de-certification is as-such not captured in these scraps.

The tape shows a system that got busy in 2000 and was really crushed from 2001 until late in 2002, finally stabilizing in 2004 in a routine.  This 3 year period accounts for 4.8M issued certificates.

Data for 2012 is incomplete representing about 30% of the year;  crudely extrapolating from this sample, Non-Restricted certificates could have reached 700,000 (seems high), 6,000-7,000 Prohibited, and 50,000 to 60,000 Restricted.

In the routine years (2004+):

On average 31,300 Restricted certificates were issued per year, totaling a program lifetime of 556,639 Restricted certificates issued.

On average 7,000 Prohibited certificates were issued per year, totaling a program lifetime of 198,879 Prohibited certificates issued.

On average, 327,100 Non-Restricted certificates were issued per year, totaling a program lifetime of 7,260,663 Non-Restricted certificates issued.

More to come…

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